The 2019/20 season has been one of disappointment for fans of Manchester City like myself, and it’s not often I say that. Usually I like to remind myself of the days before the good times to reassert how lucky I am to support City. The times where Javier Garrido was our first choice left back, when ‘heavy investment’ materialised into Rolando Bianchi,and back when a good season was a top ten finish and a win over United.
But there, I said it. I’ve been disappointed with City this year. Maybe it’s because of the success I’ve seen as a blue in recent times, that has subconsciously adjusted my expectations for the club. 4 titles in a decade and a domestic treble is not something I thought I’d see, and I feel like this has made me feel somewhat…demanding(?) of success?
The exact diagnosis of this season’s mishaps and malfunctions would differ on who you ask. Some figure it’s the recruitment City made in the summer, not picking up another centre back as Vincent Kompany went to Belgium.
Others would argue that it’s injuries. Losing Aymeric Laporte is a massive void in the roster, especially now that Kompany is gone, not to mention the likes of Sane who’s out for a while, Rodri who has missed time, and most recently Sergio Aguero.
Then there’s the case of this drop off being inevitable, that 2 years of that much football, that high of a standard, for that long were bound to wear the players down. This is the argument that footballing senescence is simply sinking into this city side, and that that’s just the result of that exposure to success and a side effect of the rigorous Guardiolan regime.
Personally, I believe little parts of these theories. Yes, recruitment could have been a bit better, injuries to key players do hurt and lots of football can wear players down, but I also feel the dropping of points has been contributed to by something a little more technical with the way City set up. Especially in one certain aspect of our performances this year.
Crosses & losses
One of the most frustrating aspects of City’s play this season, and one that I personally believe to be a cause for concern, has been the tendency to rely upon a hefty supply of crosses once plan A looks like it isn’t working, and this has been identified as a correlating characteristic with games we lose. This Tweet from Sam Lee, posted after the loss to Wolves, highlights this as an issue that goes back as far as last season:
As well as the losses from last season, where City produced 30 and 26 crosses respectively, City had often broke the 30+ cross barrier in all occasions of dropped points in the league this term. 31 crosses played in the 2-2 with Spurs, 46 crosses played against Norwich, 36 crosses played versus Wolves, and 31 crosses played in the loss at Anfield.
This method is of course one that goes against the profile of it’s offensive players. Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus are both players who lack height and aerial ability, so these crosses are often wasted since the targets aren’t exactly designed for that ball.
Not to mention that it is something of a diversion from the principles Pep has instilled into the side over his time here as manager.
City are at their best when they display short passing, on the ground, through the lines and into overloaded spaces, and quite frankly overdosing on crosses is the absolute antithesis of this.
One particularly interesting facet of the games where City have lost games or dropped points, is that there is a consistent occurence of a similar midfield partnership; Ilkay Gundogan, and Rodri.
In fact, the presence of Gundogan and Rodri co-existing together in a midfield has negative ramifications upon the possessional play City produce on a game by game basis. I went through the games where City have played with and without the two midfielders together, and found that when Gundo and Rodri co-exist in the midfield, Guardiola’s side produce 74 less passes, 2.97 less key passes, as well as 2.2 less shots on target.
Perhaps what’s more of a damning stat to the hopes of this partnership being effective is the lack of incisive movement from the midfield area. The Gundo/Rodri midfield produces 3.6 less dribbles from the midfield per game which is a pretty big drop off, and they also play 6 less passes into the opposition 3rd.
So to summarise, City don’t just produce less passes with the two in the team together, but they also create less important passes, the midfield dribbles past players less, and the overall team manages to create less shots on target.
And don’t forget, the use of this tandem also results in the indulgence of crosses, which is the most troublesome statistic for the minds of City fans, since lots of crosses has usually resulted in losses this term.
the x’s and o’s.
The trouble with trying to accommodate the two midfielders together is that City very much rely upon a creative midfield. Over the past 2 years especially we’ve seen how important those two playmakers in the middle are, and this combo hurts that.
The double pivot is a negative for the midfield because it means that all of a sudden we have an imbalance, with 2 defensive minded/holding midfielders and one creative minded one. For sides looking to be defensively resilient and sit behind the ball this is great, but we’re very much not one of those sides.
Not to mention that when both of these midfielders are played together it often places the burden on the singular creative minded player to carry the midfield and link up play, as well as putting said creative midfielder into the number 10 role.
This is particularly counter intuitive for us, for two pivotal reasons; Guardiola’s system is very much oriented around occupation of the two half spaces, something the double pivot doesn’t permit, and players like De Bruyne/David Silva/Bernardo Silva thrive upon being number 8s and getting into these half spaces.
Take for example, the game against Watford, an exceptional performance for De Bruyne where he played as the number 8, in a midfield with Rodri and David Silva. De Bruyne recorded 74 passes, including 8 key passes, completed 4 dribbles and received 89 touches of the ball.
Compare that to the Everton game where a Gundo/Rodri combo was used and it’s a different tale. Here the Belgian recorded 40 passes, 2 key passes, completed 2 dribbles, and had only 52 touches.
I use De Bruyne as an example here because he is the main orchestrator in the City side, but really it paints the picture on the differences the use of Gundogan and Rodri can make. It hampers the overall side’s output in the offensive metrics, and turns the possession more stagnant than incisive, and also has an impact on the performances of the side’s finest playmakers.
It’s the lack of the extra playmaker that impedes the side when the two number 6’s play together, since you have to withdraw a creator and have the lone string puller play more as a number ten. This in turn causes the team to produce less dribbles from this area of the field, less key passes, and less balls into the opposition defensive 3rd.
The same issues arise when Gundogan gets used at the 8, which is another method that Pep uses to accommodate both of these midfielders in the same midfield, but it simply doesn’t work. The stats show how much the City production drops when the two play together, and their record of 1 win in 5 league games together tells a lot. Gundogan is not an 8. He’s a 6. His best games for City have come from the 6. He earned plaudits at Dortmund for being a 6 who can recycle possession and help buildup. This is just his fabric as a player, and there’s nothing wrong with that.
To conclude this segment; whichever way you try to arrange Gundogan and Rodri into the same midfield, problems are created for the collective. Be it a double pivot or with a 6+8 setup, the stats show City produce less key passes, less dribbles from midfield, score less, make less passes into the opposition defensive 3rd. This is particularly worrying since the two multiply for a less creative, vertically skilled team, and when the midfield isn’t able to create we fall into that trap of constantly crossing.
bringing back the balance
Of course, this is a team with a host of talented players, and even with the injuries they’ve sustained this season there’s personnel ready to come into the midfield. The 4-3-3 with the deep lying pivot man is the best setup for this City side, and I feel that’s the general consensus, so one of Gundogan/Rodri would of course slide right in there. Although, one of the possibilities is a return to the 6 for Fernandinho. He’s showcased the ability to play the pivot role better than anyone under Guardiola, and his energy at that position is something that I feel has been sorely missed in the midfield.
Ahead of this lone holding midfielder Guardiola would have an array of options. Of course, Kevin De Bruyne is probably the first name on the team sheet and I don’t need to explain why, but alongside him there’s a couple of guys who I would prefer over Ilkay.
Even though I see David Silva as a player on his last legs coming off the back-end of a great career, he plays the 8 better than Gundogan, and offers a lot more creativity going forward.
Another possibility is Bernardo Silva. This season he has been used in wing positions mostly, just featuring in the middle twice according to WhoScored.Com, and honestly it baffles me why he consistently gets deployed there and not through the middle. Bernie has the creativity to create meaingful progressions of the ball as we’ve seen time and time again, and with Mahrez having a really solid year I feel it would make perfect sense to fit him as a number 8 with Mahrez on the right.
Then there’s always the wildcard option of the youngster Phil Foden. Perhaps I let the intangibles of Phil get in the way of logic, since I love the fact that he’s grown up from watching City in the stands to playing for them, but I do believe he’d have a good impact on this team even at this age. His youth is something of a double edged sword; on the one hand he is inexperienced, and maybe not ready for the spotlight of Premiership scrutiny, but on the other he’s a raw, energetic, genuinely creative midfielder, who could not only brink a spark to this midfield but also establish himself as a starter.
This is by no means an attack on Gundogan, or Rodri. I love them both as players. Rodri is someone who I think can become the crux of this team in years to come, and Gundogan is a fairly reliable solid back up. I just feel accommodating the two together creates problems for us and that more creative players would be more suited to take one of their place.
Of course this isn’t a crisis and I’m not crying for either of the aforementioned players to be banished from the City team, however it’s an interesting topic to look into for sure. There’s lots of football left to be played this season, and fortunately for us we have a pretty decent manager at the helm making the decisions.
The Kippax tactician 